How Quickly Fortunes Change

This has been a very interesting Republican presidential campaign. About the only constant in the campaign is the party base's dislike and distrust of Mitt Romney. But in trying to find their own champion to defeat Romney (aka Wall Street Willie), the teabagger/evangelicals have been through a long list of candidates. It has almost seemed like the only qualification they really care about is that the candidate not be Mitt Romney. But one by one those candidates (Trump, Bachmann, Cain, Perry) fell by the wayside.

It looked like they had finally found their candidate when Newt Gingrich broke through with a big win in South Carolina. And when a Las vegas casino mogul pumped $11 million into Gingrich's super-PAC, it looked like Gingrich had the money and momentum to challenge Romney. But Gingrich had more ethical problems than a dozen other candidates and Romney spent millions to expose them all in Florida -- and it worked. Gingrich lost that state and is now fading back to fourth overall (out of four candidates).

The party base fumbled around for a few days trying to decide whether Gingrich was still viable or not, allowing Romney to win in Nevada. But it now looks like they are starting to coalesce around a new anti-Romney candidate. Ex-cellar dweller Rick Santorum scored three big victories a few days ago in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado (while Romney was unable to equal his 2008 percentages in any of those states).

Now the money is starting to go to the new anti-Romney champion. The casino mogul who was supporting Gingrich has cut him off, and Gingrich's super-PAC is now having trouble raising money. Meanwhile, money has started to flow into the Santorum campaign and super-PAC. Over a quarter of a million dollars came in on the night of his three victories, and more than a million in the next 24 hours -- and the money is still flowing in. In the span of a few days, Santorum has gone from being a nearly-broke 3rd or 4th place candidate to being a well-funded candidate fighting for 1st place.

This is also verified by a couple of polls still in the field. Both Gallup and Public Policy Polling are reporting they are finding a new surge of support for Santorum -- and he is now either tied with or has overtaken Romney in nationwide support. Both polls should be released in the next few days.

This years Republican presidential campaign is one of the most volatile I can ever remember (and I've seen quite a few). That's what makes it so interesting -- it can change on a moment's notice. And it's just starting. Romney is still the favorite (because the establishment doesn't want Gingrich or Santorum and nobody wants Paul), but he is now far from "inevitable".