It's Primary Day For Arizona And Michigan

(The above caricatures of the GOP candidates are by the inimitable DonkeyHotey.)

The waiting is over for the Republicans in Arizona and Michigan. Today is the day they must finally make up their minds and choose who they want to represent their party in the November general election. There's not a lot of mystery about what will happen in Arizona. All of the polls, including a couple just released, show Wall Street Willie (Willard Mitt Romney) is leading there -- and it would be a real shock if he did not win Arizona.

Michigan is a much different story. This state should have been an easy win for Wall Street Willie, since he was born and raised there and his father was a respected governor of that state. But the voters seem to be ignoring that bit of history. A couple of weeks ago he lost the lead in Michigan to Santorum. Since then he has made a comeback, but the outcome of the Michigan primary is still in doubt.

A good example of this is the results from the five latest polls on Michigan. Three of them give Romney the lead and the other two say Santorum is leading. However, all five polls show Santorum and Romney are within the margin of error. That means either candidate could squeak out a win there, but it would not be a win worthy of any bragging rights (and could be virtually a tie like Iowa and Maine).

Even if Wall Street Willie does win both Arizona and Michigan, it looks like he will be in trouble going forward. The latest poll out of Washington (which has its caucus on March 3rd) shows Santorum has the advantage there. The on Super Tuesday (March 6th), polls show Santorum with a significant advantage in Tennessee and Oklahoma, and Gingrich holding the lead in Georgia (where Romney is in third place). A new poll out of Ohio shows Santorum will probably win that state also.

It looks like this is shaping up to be a long primary campaign for the Republicans. It could still be undecided when Texas finally gets to vote (around late May or early June). Here are the numbers from the latest polls:

WE ASK AMERICA POLL (Arizona)
Mitt Romney...............42.66%
Rick Santorum...............26.54%
Newt Gingrich...............20.65%
Ron Paul...............10.15%

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (Arizona)
Mitt Romney...............43%
Rick Santorum...............26%
Newt Gingrich...............18%
Ron Paul...............11%

WE ASK AMERICA POLL (Michigan)
Mitt Romney...............36.85%
Rick Santorum...............32.53%
Ron Paul...............18.08%
Newt Gingrich...............12.53%

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP POLL (Michigan)
Rick Santorum...............36%
Mitt Romney...............35%
Ron Paul...............15%
Newt Gingrich...............8%
Undecided...............6%

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (Michigan)
Mitt Romney...............39%
Rick Santorum...............37%
Ron Paul...............13%
Newt Gingrich...............9%

MITCHELL/ROSETTA STONE POLL (Michigan)
Rick Santorum...............37%
Mitt Romney...............35%
Newt Gingrich...............9%
Ron Paul...............8%

RASMUSSEN POLL (Michigan)
Mitt Romney...............38%
Rick Santorum...............36%
Ron Paul...............11%
Newt Gingrich...............10%
Other/Undecided...............6%

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL (Ohio)
Rick Santorum...............36%
Mitt Romney...............29%
Newt Gingrich...............17%
Ron Paul...............11%
Undecided...............6%