On To Colorado And Minnesota

The dust hasn't settled yet in Nevada, but the candidates now must move on to the next two caucuses. Those caucuses are in Colorado and Minnesota, and they are coming up fast. They will be held on Tuesday, February 7th. Nevada had a very pro-Romney demographic (with a large urban vote and a large mormon vote), but things will be a bit different in the next two states. Romney could well win them, but he want have the same advantages he had in Nevada.

Romney does have the lead in Colorado, but it is about 10 points less than the lead he took into last Saturday's caucus. And in Minnesota, the four candidates are all very close to one another in current support (which means any of the four could come out on top). The only seemingly sure thing is that Gingrich has lost support recently in both states, while Santorum has gained support in both. It's possible that Gingrich is now being replaced by Santorum as the anti-Romney candidate.

The numbers I'm talking about are from the newly released surveys from Public Policy Polling. Here are their current numbers for Colorado and Minnesota:

COLORADO
Mitt Romney...............40%
Rick Santorum...............26%
Newt Gingrich...............18%
Ron Paul...............12%

MINNESOTA
Rick Santorum...............29%
Mitt Romney...............27%
Newt Gingrich...............22%
Ron Paul...............19%

Remember, these are caucuses. That means that some candidates will over-perform and some will under-perform their poll numbers. That's because candidate enthusiasm and organization are more important than general support among the population. It doesn't matter how many people like a candidate -- only how many show up at the caucus site.

There is also a primary vote in Missouri on the same day as these two caucuses, but the Missouri primary will not have any effect on the eventual selection of delegates. It is just a beauty contest. It could be important for Paul, Santorum, and Gingrich though if they could do well in it, because it would make them look like more viable candidates.