Alabama, Mississippi, And Hawaii Enter The Republican Presidential Melee

(The above caricature is by DonkeyHotey from a photograph by Vishnu Pitiyanuvath.)

Three more states and another U.S. territory enter the GOP presidential fray by making their choices known today. The territory is American Samoa with 9 delegates. The states are Alabama (50 delegates), Mississippi (40 delegates), and Hawaii (20 delegates). I haven't heard who the favorite is in Hawaii or American Samoa, but I suspect it may be Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie). He's been doing well in Pacific islands this year.

There's no way on this planet that Romney will get most of the vote or delegates from Alabama or Mississippi though. It is barely possible that he could win a plurality in one of those states, but only if the other three candidates split up the majority vote (and even then I just don't see him finishing in first). There are two new polls released for each of those two states (from Public Policy Polling and American Research Group), but about the only conclusion that can be drawn from them is that the races in both states are unpredictable. Here are the numbers:

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (Alabama)
Mitt Romney...............31%
Newt Gingrich...............30%
Rick Santorum...............29%
Ron Paul...............8%

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP (Alabama)
Newt Gingrich...............34%
Mitt Romney...............31%
Rick Santorum...............24%
Ron Paul...............6%

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (Mississippi)
Newt Gingrich...............33%
Mitt Romney...............31%
Rick Santorum...............27%
Ron Paul...............7%

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP (Mississippi)
Mitt Romney...............34%
Newt Gingrich...............32%
Rick Santorum...............22%
Ron Paul...............8%

I will be watching the outcome of the races in all of these places with interest. And I will post the results from American Samoa, Alabama, and Mississippi tomorrow. It might take another day for Hawaii, since they will allow voting until 8:00pm their time.

There are also two new polls on the race nationwide, and they show just what a mess the race has become. Both are respected polls, and yet they can't even agree on which candidate currently has the nationwide lead among Republican voters. Here are their numbers:

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL
Rick Santorum...............34%
Mitt Romney...............30%
Newt Gingrich...............13%
Ron Paul...............8%

GALLUP DAILY TRACKING POLL 
Mitt Romney...............34%
Rick Santorum...............25%
Newt Gingrich...............15%
Ron Paul...............12%