Missouri GOP Caucuses Today

Today is the day that Missouri Republicans hold their caucuses. Missouri held a primary last month, but that was just sort of a "beauty contest" to see what the state's Republicans thought of the candidates -- and their were no delegates at stake. They caucuses are different, and much more important -- because they will determine which candidates get delegates and how many.

This could be another big day for Rick Santorum. That's because he took 55% of the vote in the MIssouri primary to only 25% for Romney and 12% for Paul (Gingrich was not on the ballot). But a primary and a caucus are vastly different things. Lots of people will take a few minutes to vote in a primary, but won't take the opportunity to attend a caucus where the procedures can be very time-consuming (and infuriating).

Will Gingrich steal some of the Santorum supporters from the primary? Will Paul do well, or underperform as he has been doing recently? Can Santorum pull off another big victory in Missouri? Or will the Romney supporters turn out in bigger numbers? Late tonight we'll have the answers to all of those questions -- and have a better idea of how the 52 Missouri delegates will be apportioned.

Then tomorrow (Sunday) the territory of Puerto Rico will hold their primary. I haven't seen any polls of the race there, but I have to believe Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) has a very good chance of winning. That's because Santorum tried to commit political suicide when he visited there a few days ago. He told the Puerto Ricans that they would never become a state until they learned to speak English -- not the smartest thing to say on that Spanish-speaking island.

Next Tuesday, only three days from now, the people of Illinois will get their chance to make their choice known in the GOP primary. There are 69 delegates at stake, and recent polls have shown Wall Street Willie (Romney) with a slight lead over Mr. Frothy (Santorum). It's turning out to be a battle between Chicago and the rest of Illinois. Romney is leading in Chicago, while Santorum leads in the rest of Illinois. I wouldn't count Santorum out yet, because he has been doing better than his polling shows. Here are the numbers in the latest polls:

RASMUSSEN POLL (Illinois)
Mitt Romney...............41%
Rick Santorum...............32%
Newt Gingrich...............14%
Ron Paul...............7%

ASK AMERICA POLL (Illinois)
Mitt Romney...............37%
Rick Santorum...............31%
Newt Gingrich...............14%
Ron Paul...............10%

If money was the only thing that mattered, then Wall Street Willie would be assured of winning -- because he has vastly outspent Mr. Frothy in Illinois. The Romney campaign and the Romney super-PAC have together spent over $3.6 million in Illinois so far. The Santorum campaign and the Santorum super-PAC have only spent a little over $700,000.

Can Romney buy himself another state? He was able to do so in Florida, but a 3 to 1 spending advantage in Alabama and Mississippi bought him only a third place finish. We'll have to wait until Tuesday to see what his spending in Illinois has accomplished. This graph shows what the Illinois spending looks like: