The Race Goes On (Unenthusiastically)

(The above caricatures of the remaining GOP hopefuls are by the inimitable DonkeyHotey.)

Super Tuesday is now over, and the Republicans are still mired in a dirty and divisive campaign to determine who their nominee (sacrificial lamb) will be to oppose President Obama this November. The wealthy and the GOP establishment are casting their lot with Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie). That's understandable, since he is one of their owm. But a substantial majority of the party's base would like anybody else.

The base (mainly teabaggers and evangelicals) have been through a whole host of characters in try to find the perfect "anti-Romney", but most have been found wanting and have dropped out of the race. They are now left with a choice between Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich (because even the GOP base can't seem to stomach the crazy old coot from Texas -- Ron Paul). It's beginning to look like there will be a lot of unhappy Republicans no matter who comes out on top.

This unhappiness and lack of enthusiasm is starting to show. A recent Rasmussen Poll showed that at this late date a significant portion of Republican voters are still unhappy with the choices they are being offered. About 43% say they would like for a new candidate to enter the race, while only 36% say they are happy with the choices they have (and I guess the other 21% just doesn't know what the hell to think).

The lack of enthusiasm is also being shown by a reduction in turnout of GOP voters. The percentage of eligible voters who have actually voted in the 13 primaries held so far trails the percentages from both 2000 and 2008 (the last two times there was competition for the GOP nomination). Here are those percentages:

2000..........12.24% of eligible voters
2008..........13.15% of eligible voters
2012..........11.46% of eligible voters

But whether the voters are happy with their choices or not, the race goes on. The next stop is the Kansas caucus on Saturday. It was once thought that caucuses were Paul's opportunity to shine, but that has not been the case so far -- and there is no reason to think that will change in Kansas on Saturday. It also looks like Gingrich has decided he doesn't stand much of a chance in Kansas, because he has cancelled his appearances there and decided to put all his efforts into the South.

That means Kansas is most likely a contest between Rick Santorum (Mr. Frothy) and Willard Mitt Romney (Wall Street Willie). Since Kansas, like its neighbor Oklahoma, is an extremely socially conservative state, I would expect the results there to mirror those in Oklahoma. In other words, I think Mr. Frothy will win Kansas and Wall Street Willie will finish second there.

Then the race moves south next Tuesday with Mississippi and Alabama holding their primaries. I haven't seen any numbers for Mississippi, but if the two polls released for Alabama (taken before Super Tuesday) are right, Gingrich may be in trouble. Here are those Alabama numbers:

ALABAMA STATE UNIVERSITY POLL (Alabama)
Rick Santorum...............22.7%
Mitt Romney...............18.7%
Newt Gingrich...............13.8%
Others...............15.0%
Undecided...............29.8%

ALABAMA EDUCATION ASSOC. POLL (Alabama)
Mitt Rpmney...............31.2%
Rick Santorum...............21.6%
Newt Gingrich...............21.0%
Ron Paul...............6.5%
Undecided...............19.8%