Romney Is Losing Support Of A Group The GOP Must Have

One of the most important segments of the voting public for Republicans is Whites without a college education. Polls have made it obvious that the two largest minority groups in the United States (African-Americans and Hispanics) are going to deliver a large majority of their votes to President Obama and the Democrats in the coming election. That means the Republicans must have a huge majority of Whites to stand a chance of winning -- and most of those people do not have a college education.

In 2010, the Republicans were able to carry a large percentage of this group, and with the low turnout overall, they were able to take the House of Representatives. It is imperative that they still can hold that large majority of non-college educated Whites. The problem is though that they are starting to lose that group. Last Fall, before the start of the Republican primaries and caucuses, Romney lead the president by at least 14 points in this demographic (52% to 38%). But now that lead has been dramatically cut.

In the last few months, a lot of truths have been revealed about Romney. People know know he makes well over $20 million a year without lifting a finger, and pays a smaller tax on that huge income than a middle class worker (who has to work hard for his/her income). They've also learned of his job-killing activities as head of Bain Capital, and his hiding money in the Cayman Islands to avoid paying taxes. More and more people are starting to see Romney as a poster boy for Wall Street greed, rather than a person like them -- and that is hurting his popularity.

The 14 point lead of Romney over Obama among non-college educated Whites has now shrunk to only a 5 point lead (48% to 43%). That is a disastrous number for the Republicans. If they lose more than 40% of this group in the coming election they will be trounced. They got beat in 2008 with Obama getting only 32% of this group. Imagine what the numbers will be like if he can get over 40%.

The Republican establishment still wants Romney as their nominee, but I have to wonder if they realize just how damaged he has been by the primaries. I'm starting to think he would be just as weak a candidate as Gingrich or Santorum.