Texas For Romney? - I Doubt It

The Texas Primary was originally scheduled for Super Tuesday (March 6th), and if it had been held on that day it might have had a significant effect on the current Republican campaign (because Texas has an enormous 155 delegates at stake). But the Texas primary had to be delayed, because the Republican legislature over-reached in it's effort to create safe new GOP districts (denying minorities the new districts they were entitled to have).

That caused the redistricting effort to be tied up in a lengthy court battle, which still has not been settled. Finally, a federal court in San Antonio drew its own districts (good only for this year's elections) so the primary could be scheduled and held. That primary is now scheduled for May 29th. This was a disappointment for Republicans, because they thought the May 29th date would be too late for them to have a voice in the Republican presidential nomination race.

After Tuesday's results (where Romney finished third in both Alabama and Mississippi, and had to split Hawaii's delegates with his opponents), that may not be true. It's looking like the GOP race will be a long one, and Texas might be optimally-placed on May 29th to make a big difference in who gets the nomination. Of course, this brings up the question of just who the Texas Republicans will support.

Two days ago, the Rasmussen Poll published their latest survey of Texas Republicans -- and that survey showed Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) as the leader in Texas. Here are their numbers:

RASMUSSEN POLL (Texas)
Mitt Romney...............32%
Rick Santorum...............30%
Newt Gingrich...............19%
Ron Paul...............9%
Other/Undecided...............10%

Having been born and raised in Texas (and still live there), I find that hard to believe -- for a couple of reasons. First, the Texas Republican Party is composed of mainly teabaggers and evangelicals (groups that Romney has yet to win over). It much more closely resembles the party in states like Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma, and South Carolina than it does the party in states Romney has done well in (like New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Nevada).

Second, there are two other polls that show Santorum with a good lead. And both those polls show the Santorum lead exceeds the margin of error (while the Romney lead in Rasmussen is within the margin of error). Here are those polls -- one released on February 20th and the second on March 14th.

TEXAS TRIBUNE/UNIV. OF TEXAS POLL (February)
Rick Santorum...............45%
Newt Gingrich...............18%
Mitt Romney...............16%
Ron Paul...............14%
Others...............6%

WPA RESEARCH POLL (March)
Rick Santorum...............35%
Mitt Romney...............27%
Newt Gingrich...............20%
Ron Paul...............8%

Wall Street Willie will get some Texas delegates (because they are awarded proportionally and he will top the 15% threshold), but he will not finish in first place in Texas -- unless he somehow clinches the nomination before Texas votes (and that is not likely).