Thursday, April 05, 2012
Obama Holds Solid Lead In Swing States
As the graphs above (from the Gallup Poll) show, the Republicans have had a small advantage in those swing states since last Fall (and even as late as February, Romney was holding a 2 point lead over the president). That advantage is now gone. The president has now built up a 9 point lead in the 12 swing states (see top chart). And this growing lead was accomplished just in the last month.
At least part of this is due to the Republican "war on women", as other polls have shown that women are abandoning the Republican Party in large numbers -- especially single women and women under the age of 50. But as the bottom chart shows, that is not the Republicans only problem.
Independent voters, both men and women, are moving away from the Republicans and to the president. In January, Romney had a negligible 1 point lead over the president (47% to 46%). But the Republicans (namely Romney) has been losing support steadily among Independents for the last three months. President Obama now has a 9 point lead (48% to 39%) over Romney with swing state Independents.
This does not bode well for the Republicans -- whose actions recently make it seem like they're trying to destroy their own "brand". They cannot win without these Independent swing state voters, and right now more of them are supporting the president everyday.