Writing Is On The Wall (Demographically)

(The graphic above is from the blog of Yun S. Lee.)

Did you ever wonder why the campaigns of most (if not all) Republicans consists of nothing more than lies, divisive social issues, and voter suppression efforts? I believe there are a couple of reasons. First, their economic policies have failed miserably -- causing a vast inequality of wealth and income, and triggering the worst economic recession since the Great Depression. They can't campaign on their economic policy (which is still the failed trickle-down policy).

So they are left with lies and divisive issues (like same-sex marriage), but people are starting to see through the lies and the divisive issues are starting to turn against them (if polls are to be believed). That leaves them with voter suppression (through unnecessary things like Voter ID laws). They claim these laws are necessary to prevent voter fraud, but that kind of voter fraud is non-existent in this country. The real reason is to prevent people who are likely to vote Democratic from voting (and for the GOP that is mainly minority voters).

The Republicans can read the census figures like anyone else. And they know that the portion of the United States population composed of minorities grows with each passing year, while the portion composed of whites decreases. It is only a matter of time before the United States population has a majority of people in minority groups (Hispanics, African-Americans, Asians, Pacific Islanders, Native Americans, Mixed-race individuals, etc.) and a minority of whites.

That would be disastrous for the Republicans if all these people are able to vote, since the anti-immigrant anti-minority policies of that party tends to drive away minority voters. In some states, the tipping point is approaching fast. In Texas, minority children already compose a majority of all the state's school children. And since the fastest growing portions of the Texas population are minorities (by a large margin), it won't be too many years down the road until minorities make up a majority of voters.

It is further down the road for the nation as a whole, but the same population trends are at work. The U.S. Census reports that for the first time in this nation's history, whites did not make up a majority of births. In 2011, the majority of births in the United States were minorities -- and this trend is just expected to grow larger with each passing year. There is no question that at some point in this century whites will be outnumbered by minorities -- it's just a question of how soon.

Now a reasonable person would think the Republicans should change their anti-immigrant and anti-minority policies. But the Republicans can't do that -- at least not right now. If they did, they would drive away a large part of their base (especially in the South, where the party became viable by accepting the numerous racists fleeing the Democratic Party after President Johnson got his civil rights laws passed).

That leaves them with no option but to do their best to suppress minority votes. It won't work though. It might put off the inevitable for a few years, but it can't stop the approaching demographic change in the United States.