Swing State Hispanics Support Obama

In 2000, George W. Bush barely won the presidency with about 35% of the Hispanic vote. In 2008, John McCain won about 31% of the Hispanic vote and was crushed in the election. Most political pundits are saying that for Mitt Romney to win in 2012, he's going to have to do at least as well as Bush did in 2000. Can he do it. Recent polls among the Hispanic community in this country show he's lagging far behind McCain's percentage.

But the Hispanic vote is going to be more important in some states than in others. There are some states where Hispanics are so small a percentage of the population that their effect on the outcome of the vote in those states will be negligible. And there are other states that are so red or blue, that even a large Hispanic vote probably wouldn't change the outcome. For instance, Texas is so Republican that a large Hispanic vote for Obama would probably not keep the state from going for Romney (although that will change in the future as the percentage of the population of Hispanic heritage grows). California is just the opposite, and would probably go for Obama even without a large Hispanic vote.

But there are some states where the Hispanic vote is going to be very important, like the swing states of Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Virginia. If Romney can't make some significant inroads into the Hispanic vote in these states, he could wind up losing them. So, how is he doing in those states? A new Latino Decisions/America's Voice Poll decided to find out. They surveyed 2000 Hispanic voters -- 400 in each of those swing states between June 12th and 21st (with the margin of error being 2.2 points overall, and 4.9 points for each state). Here are the results of that survey:

WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE?
Immigration...............44% combined
(AZ-55%, CO-39%, FL-39%, NV-52%, VA-55%)
Economy...............31% combined
(AZ-26%, CO-19%, FL-35%, NV-31%, VA-31%)
Jobs...............23% combined
(AZ-23%, CO-31%, FL-21%, NV-26%, VA-23%)

PERCENTAGE APPROVING OF OBAMA'S JOB PERFORMANCE.
Combined...............67%
Arizona...............72%
Colorado...............73%
Florida...............62%
Nevada...............68%
Virginia...............62%

WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR IF THE ELECTION WAS HELD TODAY?
Combined...............Obama 63% -- Romney 27%
Arizona...............Obama 74% -- Romney 18%
Colorado...............Obama 70% -- Romney 22%
Florida...............Obama 53% -- Romney 37%
Nevada...............Obama 69% -- Romney 20%
Virginia...............Obama 59% -- Romney 28%

It looks like Romney has a lot of work left to do if he wants to win Hispanics over. And 83% of those surveyed said they were enthusiastic about voting in the coming election (with 48% saying they are more enthusiastic than they were in 2008).