Does this mean the president will or won't be re-elected in November? That's hard to say. Gallup generally regards job approval over 50% to be a good sign of re-election and job approval under 40% to be a predictor of defeat. For instance, Reagan (53.9%), Clinton (55.2%), Nixon (57.8%), and Eisenhower (70.8%) all have 14th quarter job approvals of over 50% and all of them were easily re-elected. While Carter (35.8%) and Bush I (39.2%) had 14th quarter job approvals ratings under 40% and were easily defeated.
The closest 14th quarter job approval rating to that of President Obama is the one for Bush II, which was 47.9%. Bush II was re-elected in a close election. This could bode well for the president, especially since the job approval numbers are trending upward (as Bush II's were in 2004).
Of course, all of this could mean nothing since we are still several months from the election. But I thought it was interesting -- and thought you might also.
The only thing that is going to matter is the state and direction of the economy in the 4-5 weeks leading up to the election, and signs are not promising. All of the cheerleading about polls and about how stupid Romney is by many liberals is just whistling past the graveyard.
ReplyDeleteNot that it isn't good to see his popularity rising. It's pleasant, but I don't think it's "interesting."