Mitt Romney's Biggest Problem

A new Reuters/Ipsos Poll (taken of 1,168 adults between August 2nd and 6th) had some rather interesting findings. It showed the the number one issue in this election was the economy, and that only 31% of the public thought thing were moving in the right direction (i.e., getting better). That's no surprise, since that is about what all the polls are showing. But this poll also showed President Obama leading Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) by seven points (49% to 42%) -- one point more than this same poll last month.

That defies the pundits' wisdom, which repeatedly tells us that when the economy is bad and joblessness high, and the people don't see things improving, then that is supposed to translate into a defeat for the incumbent in the White House (regardless of party). And in the past, that has pretty much held true. Voters have kicked out the incumbent when they perceived things were going south for the country. Why isn't it happening in 2012?

Part of the answer lies in how voters perceive the programs of the two candidates. So far, Romney has not convinced the voters he could do any better with the economy than President Obama is doing. In fact, voters are split on which candidate would do better with jobs and the economy -- with Obama getting 46% and Romney getting 44%. So why isn't the race within the 3 point margin of error, like the views on who would do better with the economy? Why does Obama maintain a larger lead?

I think the real reason why Romney has not been able to get any traction (like most candidates do once they clinch the nomination) is revealed in another poll -- the ABC News/Washington Post Poll of favorability (likability). The poll (taken of 1,026 adults between August 1st and 5th) shows that most people just like the president more than they like Romney. In fact, Romney still has more people rating him unfavorable than favorable (and that unfavorable over favorable rating is higher than any other presidential candidate in recent history). Consider the following numbers:

FAVORABLE (GENERAL PUBLIC)
Obama...............53%
Romney...............40%

UNFAVORABLE (GENERAL PUBLIC)
Obama...............43%
Romney...............49%

FAVORABLE (REGISTERED VOTERS)
Obama...............49%
Romney...............42%

FAVORABLE (MEN)
Obama...............47%
Romney...............44%

FAVORABLE (WOMEN)
Obama...............58%
Romney...............36%

FAVORABLE (INDEPENDENTS)
Obama...............53%
Romney...............37%

FAVORABLE (MODERATES)
Obama...............56%
Romney...............36%

FAVORABLE (BASE VOTERS)
Obama (liberals)...............84%
Romney (conservatives)...............65%

After viewing these numbers, it seems clear that Romney's biggest problem is that the majority of Americans just don't like him very much. And with other factors being equal, voters will naturally vote for the candidate they like the best.

If he is going to have a chance to win the election, Romney is going to have to do at least one of the following things -- either get the voters to like him a lot more, or convince them his economic program would be much better than what the president has proposed (and had blocked by House Republicans). I don't see either as likely to happen.

Romney is just not a people person. He is stiff and uncomfortable around people (especially those outside his class). And his gaffes (London, tax forms, etc.) just feed into this perception of unlikability. As for his economic program, most people see it as a continuation of the failed Bush policies (which it is) and they still blame Bush the most for the current economic mess.