Monday, September 10, 2012
A Couple Of Encouraging Charts
The top one is from the Princeton Election Consortium. It uses state polls to provide a picture of how the electoral vote stands. This chart shows the probable electoral vote for President Obama over the last couple of months. Note that it has not dropped below the 270 vote level (which is required for election).
The higher the line on the chart gets, the better it is for the president (and the colors are simply to distinguish between certain events. The revelations about Bain Capital under Romney sent the chart up significantly. The only thing that caused the line to drop was the announcement that Ryan would be Romney's running mate, but that was ended by the rape statement of Republican Todd Akin. The line leveled during the GOP convention (but did not drop). But the amazing thing is that as the GOP convention ended, the line again rose -- meaning Romney actually got a negative bounce from his convention.
The lower chart shows the number of google searches for Romney and Obama. There was a slight rise in google searches for Romney as the GOP convention approached, but Ann Romney's speech didn't increase the searches at all. It was not until Romney himself spoke that the searches rose again, and then immediately starting dropping off (and was again lower than searches for Obama by the end of August).
As the Democratic convention approached the google searches for Obama rose significantly, and Michelle Obama's great speech on the convention's opening night drove those searches even higher. And this was before the speeches of either Bill Clinton and President Obama, which most likely spiked the searches for Obama even higher.
It looks like things are starting to swing the president's way.