poll analyst Nate Silver, using a combination of recent national and state polls. It shows that although Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) got no bump from his party's nominating convention, President Obama got a nice bump from his own convention. Furthermore, Willard's mishandling of the Libyan situation and his disdainful remarks about 47% of the population added to the president's bump in the polls, giving him at least a six point poll margin.
I'm sure that is true, but for weeks before the conventions Willard was unable to get significantly ahead of the president in any polls, in spite of a faltering economy and an unemployment rate that has remained above 8%. That goes against the predictions of most pundits, who thought Willard would have an edge because of the economy. Why has Willard been unable to use the economy to his advantage? Why is the best he has been able to achieve a tie in the polls (before his campaign began spiraling downward after the conventions)?
I think it stems from one undeniable fact. A lot of people just don't like Willard. In fact, the number of people with an unfavorable opinion of Willard exceeds the number with a favorable opinion of his -- and it has been that way for months. The bottom chart shows this. Willard is the only candidate in recent history (looking at both winners and losers) to have a higher unfavorable than favorable rating this late in a presidential campaign.
But it gets even worse than that. A new Bloomberg Poll, done between September 21st and 24th, shows something that should worry the hell out of Republicans, and Willard's campaign. It seems that more people have a favorable opinion of George W. Bush than have a favorable opinion of Willard Mitt Romney -- and that's in spite of the fact that a majority of the population still blame Bush for the current bad economy. Here are the numbers:
And just for comparison, here are Obama's numbers:
The truth is that most people just don't like Willard as a person. Republicans might be able to hold their noses and vote for him anyway, but it is unlikely that many Independents will do that -- and that's a big problem for Willard's chance to be elected.