Ryan/Romney Gets No Convention Bump

(Caricatures of Romney and Ryan are by DonkeyHotey.)

In the past, candidates have received a "bump" in the polls of between 3 to 9 points after their party's political convention. Sometimes that bump had some staying power and sometimes it has disappeared rather quickly, but there has almost always been some kind of bump. It looks like the candidacy of Willard Mitt Romney is denying that tradition.

This is verified by a couple of new polls. The first is the Reuters/Ipsos Poll, taken of 1,505 random national adults. This poll had Romney with a one point lead before the convention, but the first survey it has taken since the convention shows President Obama with a one point lead (44% to 43%). The results (both before and after the convention) are within the 2.9 point margin of error -- so it cannot be said for certain who is in the lead or if there has really been a change of lead. The only conclusion that can be drawn is that Romney did not get a bump in the polls from the GOP convention.

The second survey is the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll. It shows virtually the same thing -- that Romney has in the last few days gone from a single point lead to now trailing the president by a point (47% to 46%). This poll is also within the margin of error, so about all that can be surmised from it is that there was no bump in the poll after the Republican convention.

That could change in the next few days, but that is unlikely for a couple of reasons. First, a convention bump is not something that happens after thoughtful consideration. It is caused by excitement over what has just been seen (which is also why it doesn't last many times). Second, the Democratic Convention is taking place this week, and that will divert the public's attention away from last week's convention.

Why did the Ryan/Romney campaign not get a bump in the polls? That's unknown. It could be that most people already know who they support (and neither convention will result in a bump). Or it could be that only Romney's supporters were impressed by what they saw last week. We just don't know. But it will be interesting to see what the polls show next weekend after the Democratic Convention.