Swing State Dems Lead In Enthusiasm

If the pundits are right, then the 2012 election (at least for the presidency) is going to be decided by a handfull of so-called "swing states". These are states that months ago the pundits decided could swing toward either party's candidate. Yesterday, I posted about a bunch of the latest swing state polls -- and they looked very good for President Obama, since right now he is leading in most of the swing states.

But an election is not decided by popularity of a candidate alone. It doesn't do a candidate any good to lead in the polls if he doesn't have a good get-out-the-vote effort, and actually get the voters who support him into the voting booth on election day. This is where enthusiasm comes into the picture. Enthusiastic supporters will not only show up to vote themselves, but they will see that their friends, family, and neighbors also go to vote -- and they are much more likely to help the candidate get out the vote by working the phones, writing letters & mailing literature, and driving voters to the polls. But while unenthusiastic supporters of a candidate might go to vote, it is unlikely they will do much more than that.

This leaves us with a couple of important questions. Are the voters getting enthusiastic about the approaching election? And, which party has the most enthusiastic supporters (especially in the very important swing states)? A new Gallup Poll (taken between September 11th and 17th) has tried to answer those questions. This poll defines the swing states as Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, new Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

The chart above, compiled from swing state poll results, shows that voters are becoming more enthusiastic about the impending election. Back in July, only about 46% of swing state voters said they were extremely/very enthusiastic about the election. That number has now jumped up to 59% -- a gain of 13 points in the last two months. But how does that enthusiasm break down along party lines? It turns out that in swing states at the end of June the Republicans had a 2 point edge over Democrats, but now the Democrats hold a 9 point edge. Here are the numbers:

PERCENTAGE OF EXTREMELY/VERY ENTHUSIASTIC SWING STATE VOTERS

Democrats
June 2012...............53%
September 2012...............73%
20 point rise in enthusiasm

Republicans
June 2012...............55%
September 2012...............64%
9 point rise in enthusiasm

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The Purple Strategies Group, which concentrates all of its polling on what they perceive as swing states (i.e. purple states), has released a bevy of new polls. here are the states they recently polled and the numbers they found:

COLORADO
Obama...............48%
Romney...............45%

FLORIDA
Obama...............48%
Romney...............47%

NORTH CAROLINA
Obama...............48%
Romney...............46%

OHIO
Obama...............48%
Romney...............44%

VIRGINIA
Obama...............46%
Romney...............43%

ARIZONA
Obama...............45%
Romney...............48%