A PROGRESSIVE VOICE FROM THE LLANO ESTACADO

Monday, September 17, 2012

Warren Leads In Bay State Senate Race

When this campaign season started, the Republicans had high hopes of flipping the Senate over to their party, and taking complete control over Congress. But things are not working out the way they had hoped. In states like Florida and Ohio it is looking more and more like Democrats will hold on to those seats, and there is a good chance that Democrats can take the Wisconsin seat. Now it looks like the Republicans could lose their seat in Massachusetts, Ted Kennedy's old seat that's currently held by Scott Brown.

A couple of months ago, Brown was polling well, and leading the race by more than the margin of error in most polls. Elizabeth Warren has been chipping away at his lead, but right before the conventions Brown still held a slim lead. It now looks like that has disappeared, and Warren has jumped into a nice lead. Here's how a new Western New England University Polling Institute survey, done right after the conventions between September 6th and 13th, breaks down the current status of the race:

REGISTERED VOTERS
Warren...............53%
Brown...............41%

LIKELY VOTERS
Warren...............50%
Brown...............44%

WOMEN
Warren...............55%
Brown...............40%

MEN
Warren...............44%
Brown...............49%

It seems that the Democratic convention really fired up Democratic voters, and that's not good for Brown since Massachusetts has a lot more Democrats than Republicans. Brown is still leading among Independents, but the lead is not enough to offset Warren's solid support among Democrats. It looks like Brown's only hope of holding his senate seat is to convince a lot more Independents to vote for him, but right now the mood in general is for people to move away from the Republicans -- not toward them.

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