Close Election? - Not Really

The latest Washington Post/ABC News Poll has national numbers that would make it seem as though this election is very close, basically a toss-up. Among "likely" voters, the poll only gives President Obama a 2 point edge (49% to 47%) over Willard Mitt Romney. Two points is within the margin of error, so it could be looked at as though the race was a virtual tie. But that is just an illusion, and looking at the poll that way would be denying reality.

We must remember that about 38 states are really not in play. They have already been decided. Some will go to the president and others will go to Willard. What that close national average really means is that the number of Obama voters and Romney voters in those blue and red states are pretty equal when you add them all together. But that doesn't change anything. They are still blue and red states, and the electoral vote of those states remains the same.

The important thing at this stage is what is happening in the swing states. Those are the states whose electoral votes will decide this election -- and there is a wide margin between the candidates in those swing states. The president leads Willard in those states by an 11 point margin (52% to 41%, again among "likely" voters). That means while the overall national vote might be fairly close, the current electoral college numbers are pretty lop-sided -- in the president's favor.

Of course, there's still a month to go, and something could always happen to change things. But right now, President Obama's chances of being re-elected look pretty good.