The first debate is over, and the media declared Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) to be the winner -- in spite of the fact that everything that came out of his mouth that night was a lie. But he looked good and seemed confident, and that seems to be more important to the media than issues or telling the truth. Now Willard is experiencing a bounce in some of the national polls, and some of them actually have him in the lead. This has some Democrats and progressives freaking out.
Personally, I don't think it's freak-out time. The president still has the inside track in the coming election for several reasons. Some of them are:
* Polls have a margin of error, and the polls showing Willard tied or in the lead are all within that margin of error -- meaning we can't tell which candidate is actually leading (if either is leading).
* A bump in the polls after the first debate, especially for the challenger, is not unusual. However, it usually fades in a fairly short period of time.
* All the national polls can tell us is what the national popular vote is likely to be -- and the national popular vote is totally meaningless in our electoral system. A prime example is when Al Gore won that national popular vote, but lost the election.
* Our presidents are elected by the vote of the Electoral College, where the president still has a good lead in electoral votes. Willard only has a very narrow path to 270 electoral votes, and he is still unlikely to accomplish that. Respected poll analyst Nate Silver still has the president winning 296.7 electoral votes (with Willard winning 241.3) and gives the president a 71.2% of winning the election, to a 28.8% chance for Willard.
* More people still don't like Willard than like him, while it is the opposite of that for the president. According to the new ABC News/Washington Post Poll, Willard has a favorable rating of 47% and an unfavorable rating of 51%. The president has a favorable rating of 55% and an unfavorable rating of 44%. Only four times in the past have candidates had an upside-down favorability rating in September or October (Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale, George H.W. Bush, and John Kerry) and all four times that candidate lost.
I expect the polls will settle down in a few days, and the president will once again have the lead in them. But whatever happens in the polls, the election rests on Democrats, progressives, and moderates in the blue states and the swing states. If they go to the polls in large numbers, then the president will win. So if you live in one of those states, make sure you vote and get all your friends and family to vote also. The election is in your hands.
For those Democrats, progressives, and moderates in deeply red states, your vote is not going to mean anything in the presidential election. Those states (like Texas, Mississippi, etc.) gave their electoral votes to McCain in 2008 and will give them to Willard this year (and probably do Willard as much good as they did McCain). However, your vote will be important in the down-ballot races (because even red states can send some Democrats to Congress), and the president will need all the Democratic help he can get after the election.
Presidential elections don't have to be this way.
ReplyDeleteThe National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps. There would no longer be a handful of 'battleground' states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in 80% of the states that now are just 'spectators' and ignored after the conventions.
When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes– enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.
The presidential election system that we have today was not designed, anticipated, or favored by the Founding Fathers but, instead, is the product of decades of evolutionary change precipitated by the emergence of political parties and enactment by 48 states of winner-take-all laws, not mentioned, much less endorsed, in the Constitution.
The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for President. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.
In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in closely divided Battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR – 80%,, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: AZ – 67%, CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.
The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes - 49% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
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