The Quinnipiac Poll has released a new national survey. It was taken between September 25th and 30th of1,912 voters (and has a margin of error of only 2.2 points). This new poll gives the president a four point edge over Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) -- 49% to 45%. While that's a bit more good news for those of us who would like to see the president re-elected, I found another part of the poll more interesting.
The poll's demographic breakdown shows us where the president's strongest (and most important) support is -- among women. The president has a huge gap among women, leading 56% to 38% (an 18 point gap). meanwhile Romney has the lead among men, about 52% to 42% (a 10 point gap). Since there are about the same number of men and women voting, this gives the president the edge. You can verify this for yourself by adding each candidate support among men and women together and dividing by two -- it comes out to the official poll result, 49% for the president and 45% for Romney (the four point gap).
Another fairly interesting aspect of the poll shows that Willard has been unable to erode any of the president's support among African-Americans or Whites. The president leads among African-Americans by 94% to 2%. Willard leads among Whites by 53% to 42%. The president won 43% of the White vote in 2008 and easily beat John McCain. So far, he is holding on to that same percentage this year.
And considering that all polls taken among Hispanics have shown that Willard is doing even worse than McCain did among that demographic (Mccain got about 31% while Willard is struggling to stay in the mid-twenties), it looks like the president has a clear path to victory. Willard's chances are hinged on Whites and men, but he is not getting a good enough percentage of either to put him over the top.