2012 Early Voting Reminiscent Of 2008

(The picture above is from Daily Kos, and shows early voters in Houston.)

The litany from Republicans has been that the 2010 election showed the people had turned against the president, and because of that, they expected to put a Republican in the White and score even more gains in Congress. But the truth is that the turnout to vote in 2010 was very low -- partly because it was an off-year election, and partly because many voters were disgusted with the economy (and the failure of both parties to deal with it) and just didn't go to the polls. That allowed the GOP, who were enthusiastic in their opposition to the president to have a very good election.

The electoral wisdom from pundits is that the Democrats do well when there is a large turnout (like 2008) and the Republicans do well when there is a small turnout (like 2010 or 2004). So, the real question is which election will 2012 look like -- 2008 or 2004. is there going to be a huge turnout, or are a lot of voters going to stay home this year?

Well, early voting is now over here in Texas, and if early voting is an indicator of total voter turnout (and I believe it is), then it looks like the Democrats can take heart. Those early voting totals in Texas are far more reminiscent of 2008 than either 2004 or 2010. Voters have been flocking to the polls to vote early, sometimes having to wait in long lines to do it.

Here are the cumulative early voting totals for the 15 largest counties in the state (which is usually indicative of statewide voter turnout). I give you the totals for 2012, 2008, 2004, and 2010, so you can make up your own mind -- and remember, this is not a swing state but a state where the outcome has been a foregone conclusion for months. I'm betting swing state turnout is even better.

2004
Registered Voters..........8,134,811
Early Voters..........2,412,952
Percentage..........29.66%

2008
Registered Voters..........8,460,139
Early Voters..........3,556,156
Percentage..........42.03%

2010
Registered Voters..........8,339,034
Early Voters..........1,731,589
Percentage..........20.76%

2012
Registered Voters..........8,653,889
Early Voters..........3,415,536
Percentage..........39.47%

Maybe I'm wrong, but it looks to me like the Democrats are getting the big turnout they were hoping for.