Most Americans Think Obama Will Win

(Caricature of President Obama is by DonkeyHotey.)

The mainstream media has for several weeks now been crowing about what a close election this is, and how it could go either way. And the polls seem to bear that out. Some have the president slightly ahead, and others show Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) with a small lead, but all show that the lead is within the margin of error (meaning they could be wrong about who is leading).

But Americans aren't buying that. The polls may not think the winner can be predicted, but most Americans have no trouble picking who they think will win -- and a significant majority think that winner will be President Barack Obama (including about one-fifth of all Republicans). That's what a new Gallup Poll is showing (taken October 27th and 28th of a random national sample of 1,063 voters). And the numbers are very similar to when Gallup asked this same question in May and August of this year. Here are the numbers:

WHO DO YOU THINK WILL WIN THE ELECTION?

October 27-28
Obama...............54%
Romney...............34%
No opinion...............11%

August 20-23
Obama...............58%
Romney...............36%
No opinion...............6%

May 10-13
Obama...............56%
Romney...............36%
No opinion...............8%

Does it matter what the people think in a poll like this? It might. This poll has predicted the winner of the popular vote in the last four presidential elections (1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008) -- although the Supreme Court upset the apple cart in 2000 when they tipped the electoral college vote toward Bush with their decision on Florida.

Here is how this poll breaks down politically:

Republicans
Obama...............19%
Romney...............71%

Democrats
Obama...............86%
Romney...............8%

Independents
Obama...............52%
Romney...............32%