National Polls Trending Toward Obama

In the national polls taken before October 28, Willard Mitt Romney had done fairly well for a couple of weeks. Several polls showed him with a small lead and others showed him tied with the president. Nothing had really changed -- the red states were still red, the blue states were still blue, most swing states were still leaning toward the president, and the president still had the best chance of winning the electoral college. But it was enough to give the Republicans some hope, and many of them began to brag of a surge by Willard. It also had some Democrats starting to worry.

Well, in the last week or so things have changed. Every single poll since October 28th has trended toward the president -- and not a single one has Willard leading anymore. If there really was a small surge in the polls for Willard, it has now disappeared. Here are those latest national polls:

Pew Research Poll
Obama...............50%
Romney...............47%

The last poll issued by Pew (early in October) had Willard leading by 4 points (45%-49%). That's a 7 point turn around in that poll. Two other polls also show Obama in the lead -- by 1 point. They are:

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll
Obama...............48%
Romney...............47%

ABC News/Washington Post Poll
Obama...............49%
Romney...............48%

Four other polls recently released show the race for the presidency is a tie:

CNN/Opinion Research Poll
Obama...............49%
Romney...............49%

Politico/GWU/Battleground Poll
Obama...............48%
Romney...............48%

Rasmussen Poll
Obama...............49%
Romney...............49%

Fox News Poll
Obama...............46%
Romney...............46%

Those last two (Fox and Rasmussen) are interesting because they normally lean toward Republican candidates (by at least a point or two). It should make Democrats feel good if they are not showing Willard in the lead. There was some talk last week about a split between the popular vote and the electoral college (with a different candidate winning each). I now think that won't happen. I think the president will win both, and on Wednesday morning we'll be celebrating his re-election to serve a second term.