This Country Is Changing

There has been a lot written and talked about on why the Democrats had a good 2012 election and the Republicans a poor one. The most often mentioned is the fact that minority and young voters, who went in large margins for the president and the Democrats, represented a larger portion of the electorate than expected, and will be an increasingly larger part in future elections. It has become very hard to win an election just depending on white votes alone -- perhaps impossible.

But while that was an important factor in the 2012 election, and I don't want to minimize it at all, there were a couple of other important factors at play also. One is the simple fact that the voters didn't like Willard Mitt Romney very much, and they did like President Obama. Romney's unfavorable rating among voters was always bigger than his favorable rating -- from the start of the campaign to election day. And just the opposite was true for President Obama. Never underestimate the power of being liked by voters in an election.

But the third reason is that this nation is changing in term of beliefs and values. The days when the mean-spirited views ("values") of social conservatives could be counted upon to swing an election are disappearing nearly as fast as the demographic change is occurring. This is verified by the Washington Post/ABC News Poll (demonstrated by the graphic above) taken between November 7th and 11th. Note that a majority of the population now supports the legalization of same-sex marriage (51% to 47%), and an even larger majority now supports immigration reform that will give undocumented immigrants a path to legal status (57% to 39%).

In addition, the country is now split on the issue of legalizing marijuana (48% to 50%). Add to this the fact that exit polling on election day showed that a significant majority of voters still believe in a woman's right to control her own body (about 60% held the pro-choice position), and it becomes clear that voters are rejecting the long-held views of social conservatives. Cementing this fact is the knowledge that four states voted in favor of same-sex marriage and two states in favor of marijuana legalization -- both for the first time in this nation's electoral history.

One other thing about the poll is significant. Note that the largest margins in favor of the three propositions was in the 18 to 29 age group, and every age group under 65 supported all three propositions. The only significant majorities against the proposals came from the over 65 age group. That means the support for these positions will only grow stronger as the over 65's die off and the other groups grow older.

America is changing -- both in its demographic make-up and in its social beliefs and values. This does not mean the Republicans will never win another election -- they could still do well in off-year elections like 2010, when far fewer people vote. But until they change many of their anti-minority, anti-immigrant, anti-woman, and anti-equality policies, they will just become more and more a minority party in elections where most citizens turn out to vote (like presidential year elections). The tide has turned -- and that's a very good thing.