Looks Like There Will Be A Shutdown

It's looking more and more like there will be a government shutdown about a month from now (when the government's efforts to avoid reaching the debt ceiling will be exhausted). The Republicans have taken a hard line, and now cannot vote to raise the debt ceiling without getting something from the Democrats (and what they've demanded is benefit cuts in Social Security and Medicare). Even worse, Politico is reporting that many Republicans simply want to shut the government down to appease their teabagger base back home.

And now it looks like the Democrats are also beginning to harden their position. They know they lose their own base if they agree to entitlement cuts (or even drastic cuts to other social programs). And the president is taking that same hard line. Yesterday President Obama said:

Raising the debt ceiling does not authorize more spending. It simply allows the country to pay for spending that Congress has already committed to. These are bills that have already been racked up and we need to pay them…[House Republicans] will not collect a ransom in exchange for not crashing the American economy. The financial well-being of the American people is not leverage to be used. The full faith and credit of the United States of America is not a bargaining chip.

Those are some pretty strong words, and I'm starting to believe he may mean it. He knows he needs his base (those who voted for him in 2012) to win future fights, and he knows they don't want him to give in to the Republican demands. He also knows it will be the Republicans who will be blamed for any government shutdown, since they seem to delight in the idea.

I now think there will be a government shutdown. The Republicans want it. But I think it'll be a short one, because they will quickly find out that many of their supporters don't want that (such as Wall Street, which depends on government functioning as usual). They're going to be under a lot of pressure to end it quickly, and I think they'll grab any tiny bone tossed to them by Democrats as an excuse to end it -- and raise the debt ceiling.

It won't be pretty, and it will further diminish the Republican brand, but the Republicans don't seem to understand that yet. They seem to think they have some leverage, but they don't -- and they'll quickly realize that after shutting down the government. All the Democrats have to do is stand firm, and the Republicans will buckle. They'll really have no choice.