A PROGRESSIVE VOICE FROM THE LLANO ESTACADO

Thursday, January 31, 2013

Political Shift In 2012 Favored Democrats

Each year, the Gallup Poll uses the information it collected during the entirety of all the polls on political preference during the year to compile a political landscape of the United States. In 2012, that involved surveying 321,233 people between January 1st and December 31st. Around 1000 people were surveyed in each state (and the District of Columbia), and sometimes many more (in larger states). According to the survey, 45% of the population were Democrats (or leaned toward the Democrats) and 41% were Republican (or leaned toward the Republicans).

They then used the results to put each star in one of five categories -- solid Democrat, leaning Democrat, solid Republican, leaning Republican, or competitive. To arrive at this, they took the percentage of Democrats in the state and subtracted the number of Republicans in the state. A positive number of 10 or above meant a solid Democratic state, and a negative number of 10 or more meant a solid Republican state. Positive numbers between 5 and 10 designated a leaning Democratic state, and negative numbers between 5 and 10 were labeled as leaning Republican. States with numbers between positive 5 and negative 5 were deemed to be competitive states.

As the chart above showed, the political landscape in the U.S. shifted slightly in 2012 in favor of the Democrats. In 2011 the Democrats had 12 solid states and 7 leaning states, for a total of 19. In 2012 the Democrats had 14 solid states and 6 leaning states, for a total of 20 (a gain of one state). In 2011 the Republicans had 10 solid states and 7 leaning states, for a total of 17. In 2012 the Republicans had 9 solid states and 3 leaning states, for a total of 12 (a loss of five states). The number of competitive states grew from 15 to 19.

You may have noticed that the number of states totals 51. That is because the District of Columbia is included for the purposes of this poll (even though it is not a state). Here are the states in each party's category:

DEMOCRATIC STATES
District of Columbia...............64.1
Hawaii................24.0
Maryland...............23.1
Rhode Island...............23.1
New York...............22.1
Massachusetts...............20.0
Connecticut...............17.0
Vermont...............16.9
Illinois...............16.7
Delaware...............15.9
California...............14.9
New Jersey...............13.1
Michigan...............12.3
Minnesota...............11.3
Washington...............9.8
Maine...............8.2
Oregon...............7.2
New Mexico...............7.0
Pennsylvania...............6.2
Ohio...............5.5

REPUBLICAN STATES
Utah...............-36.7
Wyoming...............-30.0
Idaho...............-27.6
North Dakota...............-18.5
Nebraska...............-16.9
Kansas...............-16.3
Alabama...............-14.6
Montana...............-13.4
Alaska...............-12.2
Oklahoma...............-9.8
South Carolina...............-7.4
Mississippi...............-5.1

No comments:

Post a Comment

ANONYMOUS COMMENTS WILL NOT BE PUBLISHED. And neither will racist,homophobic, or misogynistic comments. I do not mind if you disagree, but make your case in a decent manner.