Saturday, February 09, 2013

Party ID In A Racially-Diverse Nation

This has never been an all-white nation. From the earliest days of this nation, there have been people of color making their mark on our history. In fact, one of the three people killed instantly in the famous incident called the Boston Massacre (one of the incidents that propelled Americans toward the Revolutionary War and the birth of the United States) was a black man named Crispus Attucks. But while the nation has never been exclusively a white nation, it has been a nation ruled by whites because they made up a huge segment of the population.

For far too long in this nation's history, whites did not have to reach out to racial minorities to maintain their hold on political power. Those days are disappearing fast. In the last two presidential elections the Democrats got only a minority of the white vote, but scored huge victories. That's because they also had the huge majority of African-American, Hispanic, Asian, and Native American votes. The percentage of the total vote made up by whites is shrinking with each passing election. Whites made up about 74% of the electorate in 2008. That dropped to 70% in 2012, and is expected to drop another couple of points by the 2016 election.

This is a big problem for the Republican Party. They depended on whites voters to return them to power, and it failed big -- and will probably fail in the future. I have stated in the past, as have many others, that the Republican Party is a white party. That has been verified now by a Gallup Poll. In 2008, the GOP membership was 89% white. And they are still predominantly a white party, with 2012 membership being also 89% white (meaning 9 out of 10 members being white). Meanwhile, both Independents and the Democratic Party reflect the diversity of the nation. Here are the relevant numbers:

REPUBLICANS
2008
White...............89%
Black...............2%
Hispanic...............6%
Asian...............1%
Other...............2%

2012
White...............89%
Black...............2%
Hispanic...............6%
Asian...............1%
Other...............1%

DEMOCRATS
2008
Whites...............63%
Blacks...............20%
Hispanics...............11%
Asians...............2%
Other...............3%

2012
Whites...............60%
Blacks...............22%
Hispanics...............13%
Asians...............2%
Other...............1%

The interesting thing about those numbers is that in the last four years the Democratic Party has become even more diverse in its make-up than it had been -- moving from 37% minority to 40% minority in membership. But the Republican Party made no headway at all in diversifying its membership. The Republicans have talked about appealing to minorities, but talk is all that has happened -- there has been no concrete action taken.

The Republicans have been talking recently about "softening" their rhetoric. They seem to think voters are stupid, and if they just talk nicer they will get more votes. That is laughable. Voters are not stupid, and while their rhetoric has not helped them, it is their mean-spirited policies that is driving away the majority of American voters.

And minority voters are just as smart as white voters. They care far more about the policies and bills a politician supports than the rhetoric he/she uses. They can see that the GOP is still supporting anti-minority, anti-equal rights, and anti-immigrant policies -- and that is why they join the Democratic Party and vote in overwhelming numbers to support it. If the Republicans are serious about reaching out to minority voters, they are going to have to change a lot more than their rhetoric. They are going to have to change their policies.

If they don't, when this poll is done again in 2016 it will show the Democrats being even more diverse and the Republicans still nearly 90% white -- and still out of power.

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