GOP Is Playing A Dangerous Electoral Game With Immigration Reform

(The cartoon above is by Chad Lowe in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.)

After the really poor showing of the GOP in the last election, some Republican leaders decided they must reach out to the Hispanic community. They chose Hispanics for a couple of reasons. First they are the fastest growing minority in the United States, and second, some GOP candidates have gotten a significant Hispanic vote in the past (Bush got as much as 44%). These leaders decided the best way to start that outreach was to pass immigration reform with a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

And for a while, it looked like that could happen. A group of eight Republican and Democratic senators came up with a compromise bill, and got it voted out of committee. But then the racist and anti-immigrant teabagger base of the party got wind of the compromise, and made it very clear they do not approve of a path to citizenship -- only more security on the border. Now two of the GOP senators who were co-writers of the immigration reform bill (Senator Rubio and Senator Cornyn) are backing away from their own bill.

The Senate GOP is declaring the bill is too weak on border security, even though current undocumented immigration is at a zero level (as many are leaving as are entering), and the Dept. of Homeland Security has given our border security its highest rating. But these senators are not operating on reality -- just on the wishes of their racist and anti-immigrant base. And prospects look even dimmer for immigration reform in the House (which the GOP controls). A decent immigration reform bill is unlikely to even get a vote there -- although they did just vote overwhelmingly to deport DREAMERs (young immigrants who are successfully going to college or served in our military).

Maybe the right-wingers in the GOP think immigration reform is not necessary -- that they can appeal to Hispanics without passing any reform. If so, they are playing a dangerous electoral game -- since the white vote goes down with each presidential election as the Hispanic vote grows. And a new poll shows that the Hispanic community thinks immigration reform (a fair immigration reform) is very important. It is the America's Voice/Latino Decisions Poll (done between May 25th and June 1st of 500 registered Latino voters -- with a margin of error of 4.4 points), and the GOP would do well to give this poll some serious consideration.

Some Republicans, especially those on the far right, think Hispanics are a lost cause -- and passing immigration reform will just give more votes to the Democrats. They are wrong. At least 45% of the poll respondents said they would consider voting Republican in the future (and 50% said they had done so in the past) if the GOP joined with Democrats and passed a fair and reasonable plan to reform immigration (with a path to citizenship). But they also made it clear that killing immigration reform could be disastrous if the GOP wants Hispanic votes. The following numbers should give the GOP something to think about:

WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE FACING THE HISPANIC COMMUNITY?
Immigration reform...............55%
Jobs/economy...............35%
Education reform/schools...............15%
Health care...............14%

WHAT IS YOUR OPINION OF DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS?
Favorable...............68%
Unfavorable...............24%

WHAT IS YOUR OPINION OF REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS?
Favorable...............33%
Unfavorable...............59%

HAVE YOU HEARD OR READ ABOUT THE IMMIGRATION REFORMS CONGRESS IS CONSIDERING?
Yes...............80%
No...............18%

HOW IMPORTANT IS IT FOR CONGRESS TO ADDRESS IMMIGRATION REFORM THIS YEAR?
Extremely/very important...............78%
Somewhat important...............17%
Not too/at all important...............4%

SHOULD CONGRESS FOCUS ON BORDER SECURITY FIRST, OR ON BOTH SECURITY AND A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP?
Security & path to citizenship...............81%
Security first...............13%

DO YOU APPROVE OF THE JOB CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS ARE DOING ON IMMIGRATION POLICY?
Approve...............65%
Disapprove...............25%

DO YOU APPROVE OF THE JOB CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS ARE DOING ON IMMIGRATION POLICY?
Approve...............27%
Disapprove...............58%

IF IMMIGRATION REFORM IS NOT PASSED THIS YEAR, WHICH PARTY WILL BE MOST RESPONSIBLE?
Republicans...............39%
Democrats...............9%
Both equally...............48%

The Republicans have a real opportunity to make inroads with Hispanic voters, but they are most likely going to blow that opportunity. And that is a direct result of letting the racist teabagger element get too much power in the party. This element doesn't understand the reality of America's changing demographics, and still cling to the idea of an America for whites only. That vision could be the death of the Republican Party.