Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is not a very popular man in Kentucky right now. In fact, he may be the most unpopular person in the United States Senate, with a terrible approval rating from his home state voters (with 31% approving of him and a whopping 61% disapproving). And that could present a problem with his effort to be re-elected.
McConnell has a teabagger opposing him in the state Republican primary, but right now it looks like he'll easily get by that problem. The opponent, Matt Bevin, is unknown to most GOP voters, and is currently trailing McConnell by about 27 points (53% to 26%). McConnell has a much bigger problem in surviving the general election against Democrat Alison Grimes.
Months ago, polls showed that Grimes had a small lead -- a lead within the margin of error of those polls. That meant the race was a toss-up, and McConnell could well lose. Since that time, he has tried to put some distance between himself and Grimes by running negative ads in the state against her. But it's just not working. The latest poll shows McConnell has a 1 point lead (43% to 42%), within the margin of error. The race is still a toss-up.
There's still a long way to go before the 2014 election, but the lack of any movement at all in the last few months has to be worrying the McConnell campaign. Right now, he is probably being helped by the unpopularity of Obamacare. But as more people sign up for the insurance, and find that it is both cheaper and better, that's going to change. And it's not going to help that McConnell is leading his party's effort in the senate to stop a minimum wage raise, and to cut benefits for Social Security and Medicare.
I didn't think it would be possible a few months ago, but I'm now starting to think the Democrats could win this race.
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