I have written before about the changing population demographic in the United States. The minority population is growing much faster than the white population. Some states are already starting to reach the point where minorities will soon make up a majority of their population (like Texas, where minority school children already outnumber white school children). And the fastest growing portion of the minority population is among Hispanics.
And this is also starting to affect electoral politics. In each of the last several presidential elections, the percentage of whites has shrunk by about 2%, while the percentage of minorities has increased by that amount. There are some Republicans that can read the writing on the wall, and they have urged the GOP to modify it's anti-minority and anti-immigrant policies in order to appeal to Hispanic voters -- but they have been unable to convince the vast majority of Republicans that this must be done.
Instead, the Republicans have taken a different route. They have decided they can fight the demographic shift by suppressing the minority vote, by closing the borders even tighter, and by denying the right of immigrants to pursue a path to citizenship. A couple of decades ago, that might have seemed to be a viable option -- but now it is nothing more than wishful thinking and self-delusion.
Look at the chart above. In the 80s and 90s, the majority of Hispanic growth in the United States came from immigrants. That is no longer true in the 21st Century. Note that while the number of immigrants adding to the population has declined, the number of Hispanics born in the United States has become the majority part of that growth (and now makes up about 60% of Hispanic growth). And regardless of what happens with immigration, the growth due to Hispanics born here will continue to rise.
That means there is no way to stop the changing demographic. Even if all undocumented immigrants were deported and all illegal border crossings were stopped, the percentage of the Hispanic portion of the population would continue to grow (and since they are native-born, they can vote anytime they want).
The Republicans can continue to play their racist anti-minority and anti-immigrant games if they want, but they are only fooling themselves. Unless they change, they will join the Whigs as a party that exists only in history books.
(The chart above was made from information in a new report from the Pew Research Center.)
In 1960, blacks officially had the right to vote in the South. But via a variety of voter suppression methods, the white population of the South managed to keep them from voting. I see a lot of those same strategies coming back into play today, with all sorts of voter ID, not opening precincts in minority areas, etc. all going on. Unless the Federal government comes in and starts enforcing the Voting Rights Act again as well as giving more than lip service to the 15th Amendment, we might be right back in apartheid-era South again -- majority minority, but the majority not being allowed to vote due to a variety of shenanigans.
ReplyDeleteThat's my fear. Whites never let go of political power willingly. Never.