Voter Enthusiasm Is Down Sharply From The 2010 Level

These charts were made from off-year election surveys done by the Gallup Poll -- the latest being done between April 24th and 30th of a nationwide sample of 1,513 adults, with a 3 point margin of error.

Voter turnout is determined in large part because of voter enthusiasm. The higher the voter enthusiasm, the larger the voter turnout. And in off-year elections (elections in which there is no presidential election), both voter enthusiasm and turnout normally falls from what it was in the previous presidential election.

But 2010 was an anomaly, in that it had a very high voter enthusiasm (about 52%). The problem that year (for Democrats) is that most of that voter enthusiasm was among Republicans. Republicans had a huge 62% enthusiasm level, compared to about 44% for Democrats -- and that resulted in an electoral disaster in 2010, as Republicans voted in much larger numbers than Democrats did (and flipped the House over to their control).

The question now is -- what is going to happen in 2014? Will it be a repeat of 2010? Judging from this year's enthusiasm numbers, the answer to that question is no -- 2014 will not be a repeat of 2010, due to a sharp drop in voter enthusiasm (from 52% in 2010 to about 35% in 2014). And not only has the enthusiasm gap narrowed overall from 2010, the gap between the parties has also narrowed. While the Republicans had a massive 18 point advantage in enthusiasm in 2010, they currently enjoy only a 10 point advantage (42% to 32%) -- which can be offset by the fact that the Democrats enjoy about that same point advantage in party members. In other words, if you go just by enthusiasm and party membership then this is shaping up to be a very close election -- not at all like the 2010 election.

Of course, the general election hasn't started yet. As I have said before, there are districts where the Republicans are safe and others where the Democrats are safe. The election (and control of Congress) will be determined in the other, more competitive districts, and a small turnout will favor Republicans while a substantial turnout will favor Democrats. And I still believe the Democrats hold a couple of advantages in those competitive districts.

The first is a strong anti-incumbent mood among the general public. Since more of these competitive districts are currently in the hands of the Republicans, this anti-incumbent mood will hurt them more than Democrats.

The second is the parties stands on the issues. The Republicans, in an effort to make their teabagger base happy, have taken extremist and unpopular stands on several important issues -- stands that will not be popular with general election voters. They want to eliminate Medicare, cut Social Security benefits, keep the minimum wage at the current level (or lower), stop immigration reform, block job creation, cut food stamps, and lower taxes for the rich (and corporations). Poll after poll has shown the majority of voters do not agree with these stands.

The Democrats need to go all in on these issues -- and make sure the voting public understands just how extremist the Republican view is on these important issues. Doing that can increase voter enthusiasm and turnout, to the detriment of the Republicans. It won't be easy, and it will take a lot of work, but this election is winnable for the Democrats.