Teabaggers Misunderstand America's Demographic Change

I have written before about the demographic change that is happening in the United States. By the middle of this century (or earlier), Whites will cease to be the majority of the population, and current minorities (Hispanics, Blacks, Asians, etc.) will outnumber Whites in this country. This is already starting to happen in some states (like Texas where minority children already outnumber Whites in the state's schools).

This is not good news for the Republican Party. Thanks to their anti-minority and anti-immigrant policies, the minority groups in this country vote overwhelmingly for Democrats -- and in the 2012 election the Democrats got more than 70% of the vote from all minority groups. A few national Republicans see the problem, and they have urged the party to moderate their policies to appeal to more minority voters. But these Republicans do not control the Republican Party in most states -- the teabaggers do, and they do not want to moderate party policies. They want to make those policies even more extreme.

These teabaggers don't have too firm a grip on reality, and they are controlled by their racist and bigoted beliefs. They simply can't envision an America where Whites are the majority. And those beliefs have them believing a fallacy -- that most Hispanic growth in the United States comes from immigration, especially undocumented immigrants. So instead of moderating their policies (the only real way to appeal to the growing tide of minority voters), their bigoted beliefs have caused them to support policies that are sure to fail (and hurt their party).

They actually think they can stave off this demographic shift by closing the border completely, passing stringent voter laws that affect minorities more than Whites, and by opposing immigration reform (especially any reform that would provide a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants). Unfortunately for them these measures are destined to fail, because the beliefs they base these policies on are wrong.

While the demographic shift may have depended on immigration in the past, that is no longer true. As the chart above shows, 78% of the current growth among Hispanics in America comes from children born in this country (or nearly 4 out of every 5 new Hispanics in the U.S.), while only 22% (or about 1 out of 5) is due to immigration. That means even if they could close the borders, deny undocumented immigrants a path to citizenship, and deport millions of those immigrants, it wouldn't significant change the demographic change happening in this country. The growth of Hispanics would still be growing much faster than any other group in America, and they would be able to vote (since they were born in the United States.

The bigotry of the teabaggers has blinded them to the facts. The percentage of Whites in the voting population has gone down about 2% with each presidential election, and that is not going to change in the future. It is only a matter of time before minority groups outnumber White voters, and a concerted voter registration effort among minorities (especially Hispanics) will only shorten that amount of time. The policies insisted on by the teabaggers are only going to ensure their political demise -- and the demise of the party they now control.

The chart above was made with information from the Pew Research Center.