Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Liberals Are Rising, But No Ideology Is Dominant In U.S.
These charts are from the Gallup Poll. They questioned 12,137 adults throughout the year of 2015 to get the latest results (and a similar sample for earlier years), and the margin of error is only 1 point because of the large sample.
Those identifying as liberal have seen a rise in their percentage since 1992 -- going from 17% to 24 %. That's a significant 7 point rise. Meanwhile, the percentage of conservatives has remained constant -- at 36% in 1992 and 37% in 2015 (within the margin of error). Moderates have seen an 8 point drop since 1992 -- from 43% to 35%.
A plurality of Democrats (45%) now see themselves as liberals, while a majority of Republicans (68%) see themselves as conservatives. Among Independents, a plurality (41%) see themselves as moderates.
Those on the right, and on the left, would like to think that most Americans agree with them -- but that is simply not true. There are enough moderates to keep either extreme from being dominant. And as is usual, it will be the moderates who decide in 2016 who will be our next president. The Democrat or Republican viewed as the most moderate will be elected.