Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Two Charts That Should Trouble All Republicans

All you have to do is look at the policies supported by Republicans, especially base GOP voters, to know that they still think they can win with an exclusive white vote. But as the chart above shows, the percentage of whites making up the American population is growing smaller -- and by 2050 (just 35 years from now) will compose only a minority of the population.

Their policies may already be making it very difficult, if not impossible, to win a presidential election -- since enough whites (combined with minorities) already compose a majority. It's a little different when it comes to Congress, especially the House of Representatives. The Republicans have been able to stave off this demographic change by some adroit gerrymandering. But that won't last forever.

As the population becomes more diverse (and whites lose their majority), the communities (including the suburbs) will also become more diverse -- and that will make it much more difficult to gerrymander a majority without changing their policies to include minority voters (which the GOP seems unable to do).

And that's not the only problem the Republicans have. It seems that Gen X and Millennial voters are trending increasingly toward the Democratic Party. They don't like the stances the GOP is taking on the issues (especially social issues). And as political scientists have shown, the way a person votes early in their political life tends to be the way they vote throughout their life. As the Silent and Boomer generations die off, they are being replaced by voters much more aligned with the Democratic Party.

The GOP could change their policies to appeal more to younger voters, but like with their racial and ethnic policies, the GOP base doesn't want that -- making it very unlikely those policies will change any time soon. That is their right, of course, but it is making their party an increasingly smaller party.

NOTE -- These charts are from the Pew Research Center.

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