Friday, April 08, 2016

If Convention Chose Ryan, It Would Not Unite The GOP

There is a lot of talk about the Republican's have an open (or brokered) convention -- a convention where none of the three remaining candidates have a majority of the convention delegates. And a lot of the political pundits (and establishment Republicans) are saying that a Trump or Cruz nomination would leave a lot of Republicans unhappy, and leave a divided party that couldn't win the election.

One name that has been put forth repeatedly to solve this dilemma is Paul Ryan (current Speaker of the House). The idea is that Ryan, because he is outside the presidential race (and has not endorsed any candidate) could unify the Republican Party.

But this new Rasmussen Poll shows that may not be true. The poll was done on April 5th and 6th of a random national sample of 1,000 likely voters, with a 3 point margin of error. It shows that Clinton would win a match-up with Ryan, and 22% of voters would not vote for either (voting third party, or staying at home). About a quarter of GOP voters said they would not support Ryan.

I think they are probably Trump supporters, who are passionate about their candidate and would feel cheated if he was not nominated after entering the convention with the most delegates. That number is very similar to the 24% that said a couple of weeks ago they would vote for an independent Trump candidacy.

Republicans are desperately searching for a way to save their party in this election year -- but if this poll is right, Ryan is not that savior.

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