Saturday, April 02, 2016

U.S. Voters Are Trending Toward The Democratic Party

In the third quarter of last year, the number of people that identified with the Democratic or Republican parties (or leaned toward those parties) were equal -- with about 42% saying they favored each party. But that was when the Republicans had 17 candidates, and people believed they could find a good candidate to represent them.

Now the GOP race has narrowed to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz (and John Kasich who continues to deny reality). The thought of a Trump or Cruz presidency is scaring people, and voters are moving to favor the Democratic Party more. Republican identification (or leaning) has dropped to 40%, and Democratic identification (or leaning) has risen to 46%. That gives the Democrats a current 6 point advantage -- and I believe that advantage will continue to grow.

The current numbers are from a Gallup Poll survey done in the month of March, where 15,243 adults were polled with a margin of error of only 1 point. Previous months had a similar number of people questioned and margin of error.

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