U.S. Unemployment Rate Drops To 4.6% In November

The Labor Department has released its unemployment statistics for the month of November, and it shows the biggest drop in the unemployment rate in over a year -- about 0.3% to 4.6% official unemployment.

The economy produced 178,000 new jobs in November, a reasonable number, but that wasn't the main reason for the rather substantial drop in the unemployment rate. The biggest element was that 226,000 people dropped out of the civilian workforce, and are no longer counted as being unemployed (since they haven't looked for work in the last four weeks). It's no cause for celebration when the rate drops because thousands of people have given up hope of finding a job, and aren't counted anymore.

I expect the rate to remain in the high 4% level for the remainder of President Obama's term. The real question is what will be the rate a year from now -- after nearly a year of the Trump administration. I'm guessing that it will be above 5% again, because none of the things Trump says he will do to produce jobs will actually do that. He's counting on massive tax cuts for the rich and corporations to spur large-scale hiring. Unfortunately, the tax rate has absolutely nothing to do with job creation. Jobs are only created when demand for goods/services rises. But taking more money out of the economy (and out of the hands of the masses), so the tax cuts for the rich can be paid for, will not cause demand to rise. It will cause it to fall. But we shall see.

Here are the relevant labor statistics for the month of November.

SIZE OF THE CIVILIAN WORKFORCE:

159,486,000

OFFICIAL NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS:

7,400,000

OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:

4.6%

OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUP:

Adult men...............4.3%
Adult women...............4.2%
Teens (16-19)...............15.2%
Whites...............4.2%
Blacks...............8.1%
Hispanics...............5.7%
Asians...............3.0%
Less than HS grad...............7.9%
HS grad...............4.9%
Some college...............3.9%
Bachelor's degree or more...............2.3%

NUMBER OF MARGINALLY-ATTACHED WORKERS (no longer counted):

1,932,000

MORE REALISTIC UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBER (official + marginally-attached):

9,332,000

MORE REALISTIC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:

5.85%