Thursday, March 30, 2017

Ryan Says "Repeal" Not Dead - The Public Disagrees

The Republicans recently suffered a defeat, when the "repeal and replace" of Obamacare (which they have been promising for the last seven years) was withdrawn from consideration in the House before a vote could even be taken. Even though the GOP has a substantial majority in that body, they could not agree of a plan to replace Obamacare.

This week, Speaker Ryan tried to placate the teabagger base of the Republican Party. He assured them that the repeal and replacement of Obamacare was still on the Republican agenda. That was pure political theater. The GOP has had seven years to come up with a plan to replace Obamacare -- and they've been unable to agree on any plan. There is no reason to believe they can now create a plan that can satisfy both moderate right-wingers and extreme right-wingers (freedom caucus).

Adding to their woes is the fact that the American public wants to move on to other issues, and leave Obamacare in place. That's the wishes of 51%, while only 37% want the repeal effort to be resurrected. That includes both Independents (by a 19 point margin) and Democrats (by a 52 point margin).

By a 32 point margin, Republicans would like repeal to be resurrected. But I suspect it's just to erase the ignominy of the defeat their party suffered, since most of them don't want repeal without a replacement plan -- and no such plan is in existence right now.

The chart above is from the Morning Consult Poll -- done on March 24th and 25th of a random national sample of 1,991 registered voters, with a 2 point margin of error.

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