Monday, April 10, 2017

Public Growing More Pessimistic About Trump Presidency

When Trump took office, it was no surprise what Democrats and Republicans thought about his presidency. The Democrats were overwhelmingly pessimistic and the Republicans were overwhelmingly optimistic about the next four years under Trump.

But more important were the views of the general public and of Independents -- because they will determine what happens in the next election.

Right after Trump was sworn in, both the general public (45% to 36%) and Independents (42% to 30%) were cautiously optimistic. I think they were hoping that Trump would put aside his bombastic campaign rhetoric and try to do what is good for the country as a whole.

But they have been disappointed. And that disappointment has resulted in both groups now being generally pessimistic about the next four years under Trump. Currently the general public (38% to 46%) has gone from a 9 point edge of optimism to an 8 point edge of pessimism -- a whopping 17 point shift. The same is true for Independents (33% to 45%), who have gone from a 12 point edge of optimism to a 12 point edge of pessimism -- an even larger 24 point shift.

If Trump doesn't right this ship (and so far, he shows no inclination to do so), then 2018 could be a disaster for the Republicans.

The chart above is from a new Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between April 2nd and 4th of a random national sample of 1,500 adults (including 1,331 registered voters), with a 3.2 point margin of error.

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