Sunday, November 12, 2017

Will Sex Assault Of A Minor Hurt Moore In Alabama ?

Republican nut-job Roy Moore seemed to have an insurmountable lead in the Alabama Senate race. In a poll taken last Monday, he had an 11 point lead over Democrat Doug Jones. But then the Washington Post revealed they had learned that Moore had sexually assaulted a 14 year old girl in the past.

Normally, that would be the death blow for a senate candidate, but this is bright red Alabama, where Republicans are assured of winning just because they are Republicans -- and many thought that Moore would probably win anyway (including me). But we could have spoken too soon.

Another poll was done after most people learned of the accusation against Moore, and this one had the race dead even with Jones and Moore each at 46%. I'm going to have to see more polls before I can believe that (since the second poll has a smaller sample and larger error margin), but it is encouraging. I would like to believe a Democrat can beat a child molester in Alabama, but I'm not convinced yet.

The top chart is from the Raycom / Strategy Research Poll -- done on November 6th (before the accusation was revealed) of a random sample of 2,200 likely Alabama voters, with a 2 point margin of error.

The bottom chart is from the Decision Desk / Opinion Savvy Poll -- done on November 10th (after the accusation was known) of a random sample of 515 Alabama voters, with a 4.3 point margin of error.

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