Monday, February 26, 2018

Donald Trump Continues His Failed North Korea Policy

(This photo of Ivanka Trump, from Wikipedia, is by Michael Vadon.)

The words in the photo here are from Ivanka Trump, as she met with South Korean officials after arriving to attend the Olympic closing ceremony.  Even though North Korea has expressed a desire for face-to-face negotiations with the United States, it seems that the Trump administration is interested only in continuing its failed policy of sanctions and threats.

A few days ago, Trump announced new sanctions had been applied against North Korea -- this time against 27 entities and 28 vessels that he believes have been helping North Korea avoid previous sanctions.

Trump still seems to think that if he can levy enough sanctions (coupled with threats) against North Korea, they will finally be desperate enough to abandon their nuclear weapons program. In other words, he thinks he can starve them into compliance.

What he doesn't seem to realize is that surrender is not the only option available to a desperate North Korea. They could (and probably would) choose to attack South Korea to get the needed resources. Chinese and Russian leaders are smarter than Trump. That's why they are helping North Korea to avoid the sanctions just enough to stave off such desperation, and they will continue to do that.

Trump though seems to relish the idea of war with North Korea. He said on Friday that if his new sanctions didn't work, he might have to go to "plan 2" (which he described as being very bad for the world). Does he think he could get away with a military strike against North Korea? If so, then he's very stupid. North Korea would retaliate -- most likely against South Korea. Hundreds of thousands would die and a new war would be started.

And he shouldn't even dream of forcing a regime change in North Korea. China would never allow that. They don't want a Western-style and Western-oriented government on their border -- and they will once again send troops into Korea to prevent it.

North Korea has nuclear weapons. That is just a fact. And they are not going to give them up -- regardless of threats and sanctions. No nation that has developed nuclear weapons has ever given them up, especially since their enemies still have them -- and North Korea is not going to be the first. North Korean leaders believe they must have those nuclear weapons to protect themselves. They have seen what happens to non-nuclear countries when the U.S. is unhappy with them (Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.), and they think they can avoid that same fate by having nuclear weapons.

If North Korea will not give up its nuclear weapons, does that mean nothing can be done? No. They have indicated a willingness to negotiate, and we should take them up on that. At the very least, we could hopefully work out a "no first use" of nuclear weapons treaty with them -- and that would be better than the current situation.

Unfortunately, Trump is unlikely to use diplomacy to make the situation better. Diplomacy and negotiating are not his strong suits. He prefers threats and heavy-handed actions (probably because he's not really very bright). North Korea is just one reason why we must vote in a Democratic Congress this year to rein in Trump -- and then vote him out of office in 2020.

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