Saturday, March 31, 2018

The Youth Movement Should Scare Republican Candidates

These charts show the results of a recent AP / NORC Poll -- done between February 22nd and March 9th of a national sample of 1,027 young people between the ages of 15 and 34. The margin of error is about 4.2 points.

I think this poll should scare Republican candidates running for office. They already have a serious problem with women and minorities, and now it looks like they also have a serious problem with young people.

Young people equate the Republican Party with Donald Trump. By a 21 point margin, they say Trump represents the current Republican Party. That's not good, because they also have a low opinion of Trump.

By a 34 point margin, they disapprove of the job Trump is doing. By a 33 point margin, they say Trump is not "making America great again". By a 45 point margin, they say Trump does not represent  their values. By a 22 point margin, they say Trump is not mentally fit to be president. By a 25 point margin, they say Trump is not honest. And by a 27 point margin, they believe Trump is a racist.

Those are not the numbers a Republican should want for the leader of their party. Those are numbers they will rub off on them. And it gets worse. Note the chart below, which shows the young people don't just dislike Trump. They also favor many policies that congressional Republicans oppose.

In the past, this might not have been terrible for Republicans, because young people haven't voted in as large numbers as other age groups. But there has recently been a political awakening among young people. And after their march on the 24th of this month, they have gotten a taste of the power they hold. It is very likely they will take this new passion for politics into the voting booth next November.

Combined with the vote of women and minorities, that could spell disaster for Republicans.

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