Thursday, July 12, 2018

New Poll Shows Texas Lt. Gov/Attorney Gen. Races Are Close

These charts reflect the results of a new Gravis Marketing Poll -- done between July 3rd and 7th of a sample of 602 likely voters in Texas.

The most remarkable part of this poll (for me) is the result shown for two down-ballot races -- the races for Lt. Governor and Attorney General. In the Lt. Governor race, the Democrat (Mike Collier) only trails the Republican (Dan Patrick) by two points. And in the Attorney General race, the Democrat (Justin Nelson) only trails the Republican (Ken Paxton) by four points.

I suspect it is due most to the unpopularity of the two Republicans. Patrick is the most extreme Republican holding statewide office, and Paxton still has criminal charges pending against him. These two could be in serious trouble.

Having said that, I have some serious doubts about the accuracy of this poll. I have a hard time believing that 18-29 year-olds and Hispanics actually favor the Republicans by as much as the chart shows. I suspect that the sample for these groups were too small for an accurate result. If I am right, that would make all of these four races better for Democrats.

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