Friday, July 27, 2018
Women Remain The Biggest Reason For The "Blue Wave"
The Quinnipiac University Poll was done between July 18th and 23rd of a national sample of 1,177 voters nationwide, and has a margin of error of 3.5 points.
The NPR / PBS Newshour / Marist Poll was done between July 19th and 22nd of a national sample of 923 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.8 points.
The Economist / YouGov Poll was done between July 22nd and 24th of a national sample of 1,500 adults, with a margin of error of 2.8 points.
The three polls show Democrats still have an advantage in the coming election -- an advantage ranging from 6 to 12 points. The reason for this advantage is the preference of women voters. Look at the difference between women and men.
The Quinnipiac poll shows women prefer Democrats by a huge 25 point margin, while men prefer Republicans by a 2 point margin. The NPR/Marist poll shows women preferring Democrats by a 21 point margin, while men prefer Republicans by a 9 point margin. The YouGov poll shows women preferring Democrats by a 10 point margin and men also preferring Democrats by a 3 point margin.
The thing all three polls have in common is the much larger margins among women over men. Even if women and men voted in equal numbers, this would be bad news for Republicans -- but they don't. Women have voted in larger numbers than men for many election cycles now. If they do that again in November (and they likely will), that's very good news for Democrats.
2018 still looks good for Democrats (thanks to women). Now Democrats just need to make sure they get their voters to the polls. They cannot afford for any of their voters to think a win is in the bag, and stay home on election day.