Republicans Are Worried About The Senate Race In Texas

The chart above reflects the results of the latest poll in Texas. It is the Crosswind Poll -- done between September 6th and 9th of a sample of 800 likely Texas voters, with a margin of error of 4 points. The sample was 39% Republicans, 27% Democrats, and 34% Independents.

The poll shows Ted Cruz (the incumbent Republican) with only a slim 3 point lead in the Texas Senate race over Beto O'Rourke (the Democratic candidate). That is within the poll's margin of error, which means either candidate could win. And this poll is not an outlier. At least three other polls have shown O'Rourke within single-digits of Cruz, and gaining ground.

This was supposed to be an easy win for the Republicans. Texas is a very red state, and they didn't expect Cruz to be in trouble -- but he is. The poll also showed that 15% of Republicans are ready to jump ship and vote for O'Rourke. This race is going to come down to which party does the best job of getting their voters to the polls.

Trump is coming to Texas in October to campaign for Cruz, but that may hurt as much as it helps (considering Trump's bad poll numbers). And this whole mess is sending shivers down the spines of national Republicans -- especially those in the Senate (who know a loss in Texas could result in them becoming the minority party in the Senate).

The following is part of an article by Sean Sullivan in The Washington Post about Republican fears of the 2018 outcome:

Republicans have grown increasingly worried about losing control of the Senate, as President Trump’s approval rating tumbles and Democrats gain steam in key battleground races.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Tuesday sounded some of the most doubtful notes of Trump’s presidency that Republicans will keep the upper chamber of Congress, telling reporters, “I hope when the smoke clears, we’ll still have a majority.”. . .

One of the most unexpected fights is in reliably GOP Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz is trying to fend off Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke. Republicans are so fearful about losing the seat that they are diverting resources to Texas, a sore point in the White House after the animosity between Cruz and Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary. . . .

But for the GOP, simply retaining its majority — which was whittled by a seat after a stunning upset in the Alabama special election last year — has looked like a more challenging goal by the day, as controversy swirls around Trump, the public loses confidence in the president and GOP candidates are slow to gain traction. . . .

These difficulties have come into sharp focus in Texas, where Cruz is fighting for political survival against O’Rourke, a rising liberal star who is raising record-setting sums of cash and attracting large crowds across a ruby-red state. At the end of June, O’Rourke had close to $14 million cash on hand to Cruz’s $9 million, according to Federal Election Commission reports.

The tough realities of Texas have prompted an unexpected alliance between Cruz and the Republicans he spent years waging a vendetta against as a senator and as a candidate for president — including Trump and McConnell.

The sudden cooperation underscores how much the GOP fears losing Texas. The shock waves are being felt well beyond the state, as its several expensive media markets could force the party to spend money there that it will have to subtract from GOP hopefuls in other battlegrounds.

“Other campaigns are going to be shorted due to the lackluster nature of the campaign,” said one White House official, speaking of the Cruz operation.

McConnell recently assured Cruz in a private conversation that resources would be there for him, according to people familiar with the talk. Trump is planning to campaign for Cruz in Texas next month. . . .

A Cruz-McConnell partnership would have been unimaginable when Cruz called McConnell a liar on the Senate floor in July 2015 over strategy on legislation. A Cruz-Trump alliance would have seemed equally implausible after Cruz labeled Trump a “pathological liar” and declined to endorse him at the Republican National Convention.

Beyond Trump and McConnell, Cruz angered other Republicans with his unsuccessful effort to strip funds from the Affordable Care Act in 2013, which forced a 16-day partial government shutdown, and his support for outside groups that financed primary challengers to GOP senators.

“They are working together for political expediency,” said Rick Tyler, a former Cruz spokesman. “These people don’t like each other.”