The charts above are from FiveThirtyEight.com. They show the latest forecast by Nate Silver (the nation's foremost poll analyst) for the outcome of the congressional election this year.
He forecasts the Democrats will gain about 40 seats in the House of Representatives -- easily enough to give them a majority. The Senate forecast is not so rosy. He predicts the Republicans will hold their majority or pick up one seat -- allowing them to retain their control of the Senate.
I hope the polls are wrong, and the Democrats can gain control of both houses in Congress. Most of the polls are done using likely voter models. Those models are based on turnout in previous elections. A very large turnout (as seems to be happening) could produce a different result.
No comments:
Post a Comment
ANONYMOUS COMMENTS WILL NOT BE PUBLISHED. And neither will racist,homophobic, or misogynistic comments. I do not mind if you disagree, but make your case in a decent manner.