Wednesday, February 27, 2019

The Blue And Red States - And The Competitive States

The map above is Taegan Goddard's Electoral Vote Map. It shows the states that he thinks (at least currently) are likely to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for president in 2020. The Democratic states (blue) have 224 electoral votes. The Republican states (red) have 143 electoral votes. The states in gray are considered to be competitive, and have 171 electoral votes.

If Donald Trump is to be re-elected, he will need to win 127 of the 171 electoral votes in the competitive states, while a Democrat would need to win just 46 of those votes. That gives Democrats a significant advantage, but as we learned in 2016, not an advantage that can't be overcome.

What do you think? Is the map accurate? I just have one quibble with it.

Having been born in Texas and living most of my life there, I'm not sure Texas can be listed in the competitive column. Texas is changing thanks to demographic trends, but it is still a very red state. While Trump's job approval numbers are upside-down in the state, it is not by much. And there are still more Republicans than Democrats in the state, and too many that will vote for anyone with an "R" by their name.

I like the idea of Texas being a competitive state, and I sincerely hope it is true. I'm just not yet convinced.

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