Friday, May 31, 2019
Biden Leads In New Polls In N. Hampshire And S. Carolina
The two charts above are from the Tel Opinion Research Poll of New Hampshire Democrats and Democratically-leaning Independents. About 600 voters were questioned between May 20th and 22nd, and the poll has a 4 point margin of error.
The two charts above are from the Tel Opinion Research Poll of South Carolina Democrats and Democratically-leaning Independents. They questioned 600 voters between May 22nd and 24th, and the poll has a 4 point margin of error.
The polls show Biden has a 21 point lead over Sanders in New Hampshire, and a 27 point lead over Sanders in South Carolina -- and in both states, Warren is nipping at Sanders' heels.
South Carolina is not a surprise. Sanders lost it in 2016, and is likely to lose there again in 2020. But New Hampshire is a big surprise for me. Sanders won over 60% of the New Hampshire vote in 2016, and to remain a viable candidate in 2020, he needs to win there again. Trailing by more than 20 points could signal that the Sanders campaign is in trouble.
NOTE -- In these polls, voters were not given a list of candidates to choose from. Instead, they were asked simply -- Who would you like to see win the Democratic presidential nomination?