Tuesday, July 30, 2019

The Last Poll Before The Second Round Of Debates


This chart reflects the results of the latest Quinnipiac University Poll. It was done between July 25th and 28th of a national sample of 579 Democrats and Democratic Leaners, and has a margin of error of 5.1 points.

It shows Joe Biden continues to have a large lead over the field of candidates. He is 19 points over second place Elizabeth Warren, 22 points over Kamala Harris, and 23 points over Bernie Sanders.

Most interesting is the race between Warren and Sanders. Sanders has slipped down to fourth, while Warren has clawed her way up into second place.

How important is this second debate? Probably not real important for the leaders (Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders, and Buttigieg). They will have other debates and plenty of time to try and make the case for their candidacy.

But it is critically important for the other 20 candidates. They are fighting tooth-and-nail just to keep their campaigns alive -- and if they don't break out in this second debate (pull themselves up among the leaders), they may not even be participating in the third debate. This is make or break time for them, and it wouldn't surprise me if the field started to shrink pretty soon. I think at least a dozen or more of these candidates will be out before the end of September.

NOTE -- the zeros beside some of the candidates means they did not get enough support to register as at least 1%.

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